Adventure Gamers - Forums

The GBP will stabilize again once the initial panic subsides.
Now’s the time to invest in GBP and reconvert in just a few weeks for +10%.

I’ll admit that we may need to review our position in the world and that we are almost certainly in for a tougher time in the short term, but I seriously doubt it will be anywhere near as bad as people have been saying. And by that I refer to the “remain” campaign in this country assuring us that all trade of any kind with Europe will cease and we will have rioting and WW3 on the cards.

To be fair, both campaigns have been pretty bad one way or the other and the amount of scaremongering has been past ridiculous. Whatever the actual truth is, it’s clear that it isn’t what either of them have been saying.

In terms of the wider EU (at least in its current shape) you can manage without us I’m sure and I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for an application form from us!

Even if other countries do have referendums on leaving, the only country that really matters, or has mattered for a number of years, is Germany and the EU will stand or fall by reference to what they do regardless of the others, UK or otherwise.

Intense Degree - 24 June 2016 09:47 AM

I’ll admit that we may need to review our position in the world and that we are almost certainly in for a tougher time in the short term, but I seriously doubt it will be anywhere near as bad as people have been saying. And by that I refer to the “remain” campaign in this country assuring us that all trade of any kind with Europe will cease and we will have rioting and WW3 on the cards.

Trading won’t stop and will continue at pretty much the same rate as now, but now there’ll be more import and export taxes again, which in turn will drive all prices up. Even if it’s only by a couple of %, it’s the poor that are going to feel that the most - ironically the ones that voted for the Brexit the most as well.
It’s stuff like that that’s going to lower UK’s GDP most - possibly up to 5-8%.

Basically, it’s an extension of the crisis by another decade.


Given the way people voted, though, there’s going to be another referendum for Scotland’s independence soon, and the Brexit will have fueled the Scottish independence movement. And the way Northern Ireland voted, the same might happen there.
The United Kingdom could end up the Divided Kingdom because of this.

Even if other countries do have referendums on leaving, the only country that really matters, or has mattered for a number of years, is Germany and the EU will stand or fall by reference to what they do regardless of the others, UK or otherwise.

I doubt that Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, France and Germany are ever breaking up the EU (which they started in the first place with the Benelux as the very first incarnation). None of those are going anywhere, and they’ll do fine.
But the Brexit (and any other country that decides to leave) will hurt us too, in a similar manner - just a couple of %, but enough to extend the crisis by another 10 years or so.

And I doubt there’s going to be a reward at the end that’ll outweigh the shorter-term cons.
Frankly, status-quo was always going to be better than a Brexit.

TimovieMan - 24 June 2016 10:27 AM

Trading won’t stop and will continue at pretty much the same rate as now, but now there’ll be more import and export taxes again, which in turn will drive all prices up. Even if it’s only by a couple of %, it’s the poor that are going to feel that the most - ironically the ones that voted for the Brexit the most as well.
It’s stuff like that that’s going to lower UK’s GDP most - possibly up to 5-8%.

Basically, it’s an extension of the crisis by another decade.

That of course depends on what trade agreements are made following our exit. I quite understand that EU countries won’t be feeling very well disposed to the UK at the moment (even less so than usual! ) but they don’t half export a lot of their stuff here. It seems to me that there is little point in either side snubbing their noses to spite their faces. Also the fact that we (comparatively) don’t manufacture anything. We are (for better or worse) a nation of service providers.

Given the way people voted, though, there’s going to be another referendum for Scotland’s independence soon, and the Brexit will have fueled the Scottish independence movement. And the way Northern Ireland voted, the same might happen there.
The United Kingdom could end up the Divided Kingdom because of this.

Another Scottish independence referendum was only a matter of time anyway. You can be sure Nicola Sturgeon won’t be too quick to actually start the process until she is pretty sure that the EU would have them back. Given the fall in oil prices the economic case for independent Scotland is not as strong as it was last time.

Although there are certainly large sections of NI who want to be reunited with ROI I honestly don’t think there is enough to bring an independence vote through.

Quite possibly I’m wrong about both those things, or perhaps they will happen anyway. If so then it just adds to the UK, or whatever might be left of it, having to re-think its international and internal positions and I don’t think that’s a bad thing.

I doubt that Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, France and Germany are ever breaking up the EU (which they started in the first place with the Benelux as the very first incarnation). None of those are going anywhere, and they’ll do fine.
But the Brexit (and any other country that decides to leave) will hurt us too, in a similar manner - just a couple of %, but enough to extend the crisis by another 10 years or so.

Again, only if they let it. And again, only if Germany play ball. If they didn’t for any reason the whole thing (as it is at the moment) would come crashing down. But as you say, those countries would be fine.

And I doubt there’s going to be a reward at the end that’ll outweigh the shorter-term cons.
Frankly, status-quo was always going to be better than a Brexit.

My view (and it is a long way from a common one here) is that there are rewards for precisely the reason that - financially speaking - status-quo is almost certainly the better option.

I am not a fan of the status-quo. The UK is a money focused, billionaire haven which prevents normal people getting on the property ladder and the wealth gap here is pretty extreme, not because we have so many of the world’s poorest (comparatively we have none of them) but because we have so many (percentage wise) of the world’s richest, at least in terms of investments and property ownership. Living a “normal life” as a “normal person” is borderline financially unsustainable here already. This is partly due to the sense of entitlement that people here have (and why we need immigration to fill the jobs that we won’t do) and partly to the almost sole focus on monetary gain. Making money justifies pretty much everything here now. I’m sure the position is similar in other places but that doesn’t mean I like it any more.

As leaving the EU is the situation we are now in, I only hope it can lead to some change of focus if it can be seen that making less money isn’t a necessarily a bad thing. We (like any country) can rally and adapt and be better for it. Maybe we can start to make things again and lose a little bit of the materialism.

Whether any of that actually happens though is another thing entirely of course, but it would certainly take a huge event to push things in that direction. Just possibly this could be it.

chrissie - 24 June 2016 10:41 AM

That’s a little harsh Kurunfinwe as I don’t think that the younger generation of the UK believe that Britain is the centre of the world otherwise they would not have been in the majority to remain as illustrated by Abnaxus’s interesting pre-voting statistics (+ opinions expressed by representatives on live TV) & just maybe they will be active enough in the future (within the next 20 years?) to instigate joining the EU again. Please blame the older generations stuck in the past with memories of the ‘British Empire’ & ‘how we won the war’ & all that as those days have long gone + patriotic voters with an insular & over-inflated view of the position of the UK in the world today & as a result voted to leave.  I have to tell you though that there were never any in-depth clear facts presented to us.

Approximately two-thirds of the younger generarion dit NOT vote! So they’re not all that interested in the EU. If the percentage of young voters had been equal to the older ones, there would have been no Brexit.

I’m a senior citizen, I witnessed the birth of the EU-without-borders thirty years ago and didn’t like it one bit then, but in 2016 I’m definitely against GB or any other member state leaving. We can’t afford not working together on the major issues. It’s not about economics either. Closing national borders because people are afraid of immigrants is not going to solve anything.

nomadsoul - 26 June 2016 07:33 AM

Karlok - 25 June 2016 08:08 PM

Closing national borders because people are afraid of immigrants is not going to solve anything.

Which i find in England case, as its already flooded with Indians,Pakis, Bangladeshis,Nigerians etc.

 

And you’ll find that a very considerable number of these were born here (I actually live in the country you’re talking about) which, both in law and by definition, makes them British.

Karlok may be right about some things, but her views are often very different from yours.

Ahmed Aboutaleb is a devout Muslim and the mayor of Rotterdam, the second city in my country. He’s generally considered to be a very good mayor. Seven years already. I have my doubts about the new mayor of London, to be honest. This Israel/Palestine attitude of his… I don’t think that’s good.